Calibrate Your Poker Instincts

To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

To a nit, everything looks like a fold.

Over many years of playing poker, talking to peers, responding to questions on training videos, forums, social media, and more recently, talking to students of my ​coaching program​, I’ve noticed some patterns.

Today, I’d like to offer a thought, and invite you to reflect on your own process when you’re in a hand.

What Are You Looking For?

Have you ever bought a new car and suddenly started to notice that exact model on the road again and again?

Or maybe you’ve become a new parent, and now strollers, cribs, and kids' TV shows start showing up everywhere? (And not just because advertisers are spying on you!)

There’s a psychological reason for this – the Reticular Activating System (RAS). It’s a part of your brain that acts as a filter, highlighting whatever you’re already focused on or expecting to see.

While I can’t say with any confidence whether or not the same system is the cause of the phenomenon I’ll discuss today, it does feel like the same type of thing to me.

Can I Call?

Many players, I’ve noticed, are looking for reasons to call.

One student recently was going over a hand facing an all-in on the flop and sharing the exact same thought process: “I need 25% equity. I know these outs are good – that’s 15%. And probably these other ones are, so 20%-25%. And it could be more. So it can’t be that bad!”

I’ve noticed that pre-river, most players tend to be biased in this direction – looking for reasons to call.

On the river, facing a big bet, they seem to be more split. Some are looking for reasons to call, while others are looking for reasons to fold – or, more accurately, checking to see if there are any reasons that they have to call.

Should I Bet?

With the betting decisions, there are all sorts of different wants.

Some players look for a reason to semibluff, while others look for a reason to check back, fearing they might get check-raised off their equity.

Some players look for reasons to trap, while others look for reasons to build a big pot right away.

Some players look for reasons to bet to protect their hand, while… actually, almost everyone looks for reasons to bet for protection!

And with river bluffs, I see the most polarization – by which I mean, it seems that many players have an extremely strong preference for bluffing, and many have a remarkably strong preference for skipping bluffs.

Interestingly, in my experience, it seems like players looking to justify a bluff use quantitative reasoning more often:

“I only need him to fold 33% to half-pot. He’s going to have this type of hand 20% of the time and auto-fold, and then if he folds some middle pair, that’ll be plenty.”

Meanwhile, players justifying not bluffing tend to lean more on qualitative reasoning:

“I don’t think he’s going to believe me. I can’t rep this card that well. You know what? He might even be trapping here. Yeah… he’s probably trapping a lot on this runout.”

I could go into value bets, check-raises, and so on – we haven’t even talked about pre-flop! – but you get the point.

What’s Going On?

In all of the scenarios, it comes down to comfort, fear, and excitement. Whatever the player is more comfortable with, less afraid of, or more excited to do, dictates the question they ask themselves.

So ask yourself:

What are you afraid of at the poker table?

Getting a big bluff picked off? Getting check-raised when you’re making a thin value bet? Getting run over by your opponents? Getting sucked out on?

What kinds of plays make you very comfortable?

Protection betting the turn to check back the river? Checking back a thin value hand to call a river bet rather than value cut over two streets? Folding the turn so you don’t have to face an awkward river decision?

What are you excited by?

Making a huge bluff? Picking off a big bluff? Spiking a gutshot against a set and winning a massive pot?

Whatever it is that you’re seeking, you’re more likely to find.

Flip the Script

Let’s revisit that student who needed 25% equity and said his call “can’t be that bad.”

I’ll tell you what I told him:

“Yes,” I said, “but another way to look at it is that the best-case scenario is that you have about 28% equity. So it can’t be that good either!”

What if instead of asking yourself if you have enough equity to call, you asked yourself if your opponent has enough equity for you to fold?

How might that change the way you make decisions?

What if instead of thinking of all the reasons your bluff won’t work, you pause for a moment and play devil’s advocate?

Recalibrating

Sometimes, it’s less about flipping the way you analyze and more about a tiny adjustment.

Many years ago, after countless hours of learning together with a good friend, he shared with me one simple observation: “I think you need to hand-read more optimistically.”

It was a subtle yet powerful shift. Trusting in my friend, I thought a bit more about the positive than I was. I immediately began to see more possibilities. I started noticing bluffing opportunities I'd previously overlooked. I started making thinner value bets and check-raises. This fine-tuning had a significant, lasting impact on how I played and on the results that followed.

My friend didn’t see a problem with my thought process as a whole or the way I adjusted to the ranges I put my opponent on. He astutely noticed the one setting that was off.

It’s Up to You

Ask yourself what emotions might be driving you at the poker table – and how they influence your thinking. Reflect on the patterns you tend to repeat, and question if they're serving you.

Whether it’s a small shift, a different set of questions, or both – I encourage you to give yourself permission to experiment. Worst case, you’ll have learned something – like not to listen to me again!

But best case, you'll uncover a meaningful improvement that positively impacts your decisions and your results, just as I did.

On and off the poker tables, you won't just find what's there – you'll find what you're searching for.