They Caught You. So What?
You've noticed that one of your opponents c-bets way too wide on the flop. Not only that, but he folds to check-raises with anything that isn't a very strong hand.
So you start check-raising him. A lot, and almost purely with air.
It works beautifully – until it doesn't. He calls one; you have nothing, so you check-fold the turn. He calls another, the hand checks down, and you show down a ridiculous hand. He's seen it now. You got caught with your hand in the cookie jar.
Your first instinct: Okay, he's onto me. I have to stop.
In some cases, maybe he does adjust. But think about what "adjusting" actually means here. It's not one thing.
To properly counter what you've been doing, he'd have to change a lot. He'd need to start c-betting a stronger range. He'd need to call your check-raises wider. And then, in the hands where you don't raise – now that your calling range is stronger because you've been check-raising so much junk – he'd need to tighten up on later streets. That's three different adjustments to three different parts of his strategy, all flowing from one read.
That requires him to not only notice what you were doing, but figure out every downstream implication, and then actually execute all of it in real time. Most people understand the difficulty of the first two parts. The third, not so much...
The first time I noticed this was maybe eight years ago. I was playing someone who folded too often and check-raised too rarely against delay c-bets in single-raised pots. After some off-the-table work and contemplation, I decided I wanted to increase my delay c-bet frequency from 38% to 60%.
I went into the next session focused on it during every relevant hand. I bet with bluffs that were normally too weak for me. I bet more for protection than I was used to. I bet more on boards that weren't as favorable to me.
I was worried I overdid it.
After the session, I checked my delay c-bet percentage.
46%.
With full intention and concentration, knowing exactly what I wanted to do and why, I only moved a third of the distance. And that was one adjustment.
The reason it was so hard is that there were so many hands that made no sense to bet. When I added from the edges, it didn't do nearly enough. I needed to change my flop c-bet strategy in order to show up with enough new potential c-bet bluffs and protection bets, and I had to fight against my instincts and intuition to get the number higher. I got close, eventually, but I'm also probably not who you're sitting across from.
So, you got caught. Maybe they noticed. Maybe they've thought about what it means for your ranges. Maybe they know how to counter it strategically.
And if all of that is true, maybe they can rework three parts of their game to punish you for it. And maybe they can go from way over-folding to folding closer to optimally, which still doesn't really exploit you.
But to do all of that and start under-folding? I wish them good luck with that. (Not really – for your sake.)
The next time your exploit gets revealed, fight that instinct to retreat. They saw you take the cookie. It doesn't mean they moved the jar.
– Phil