What You Actually Need To Think About (Peak → Trough Risk)
Enter Your Volume
How many hands do you play per month?
—chance / year
Over 300,000 hands/year, chance of a max drawdown ≥ 20.0 BI (2000 BB) (≈ $10.0k)
Why does probability increase with more hands? This calculates the chance of experiencing this drawdown at some point during the period, not ending at that result. More hands = more opportunities for variance to create a large drawdown from your peak, even if you're expected to be up overall.
Estimated via — simulations (100-hand blocks)
Per Month
—
25,000 hands
Per Quarter
—
75,000 hands
Per Year
—
300,000 hands